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freddiegarvin3ゲスト
Since time immortal, one of the favorite pastimes of sport freaks has been gambling. Gambling is exciting, thinking about the risk involved, the luck factor and the chance to make lots of money in a few of hours. Online gambling is becoming popular with millions of men and women across the globe, with more visiting betting sites and online casinos popping up on the net than in the past. One great good soccer thing about having this facility online is of course, which it is accessible from any place which has an active internet access. This has made gambling a sport in itself, available to millions of new people.
There is a boom within the online betting industry and also the sort of profits many sites are enjoying now is unimaginable. Online casinos are not to be left behind, as there’s been a rapid explosion of these also. In reality, online poker gives gambling, a glamour quotient by roping in celebrities for high profile tournaments. It indicates reaching out to a whole new market in itself.
But as always, the most successful story will be the rise of sports betting. Fans that have enjoyed betting on games like soccer, football, polo, baseball, hockey and horse racing, can now do so online with the help of these sites. A whole new selection of sporting events are cropping up to encourage the already soaring popularity of online betting. It may be correct to say that audiences are now enjoying the betting experience without having to be at the field themselves. Welcome to the world of virtual reality.
You will find innumerable so-called gambling experts prepared to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a cost of course. I will not do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling that you can use (or forget) when you see fit.
The very first thing to mention is the fact that the majority of folks who engage in gambling will be net losers over-time. This is the very reason you will find numerous bookmakers making so much cash throughout the world.
While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they setup markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always generate a profit over the medium to long-term, if not the short-run. That is, as long since they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first study the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Remember, if sport was 100% predictable, it might soon lose its appeal, and as the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all of the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool within the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two instances of whenever you could have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a quality wedge.
The big bookmakers spend a great deal of time and expense ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they look at the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra tiny bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability will be 2/1. That’s, two to one against that event occurring.
On the contrary, a bookie who set these odds would, over-time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built-in the margin that guarantees, over time, they are going to cash in on people betting on this selection. It is the exact same concept as a casino roulette.
Now how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to get great at mathematical modelling and setup a model that takes into consideration as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it appears, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it’s as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. On top of that, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you may find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events which make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to among the players or managers, it really is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have additional information than you.
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